Funny numbers

Conservative columnist and Weekly Standard editor William Kristol (who is now going as Bill) should not be confused with comedian Billy Crystal, even though they look a lot alike.


Bill


Billy







What are these guys, twins?

Kristol (the conservative) takes comfort in some recent poll numbers: “The Gallup poll released Monday shows the public's conservatism at a high-water mark. Some 40 percent of Americans call themselves conservative, compared with 36 percent who self-describe as moderates and 20 percent as liberals.”

So you might see this as an indication that Republicans will enjoy twice the support in coming elections that Democrats will, until you think for a minute about the 36 percent who self-describe as moderate. How much room for them is there in today’s Republican party?

Not much. Maybe not any. In what would otherwise be an obscure little congressional special election in New York, a moderate Republican actually managed to win the primary, which has now resulted in a Conservative Party challenger who has the backing of Sarah Palin, among other Republican notables. Kristol seems to things that’s okay: “A liberal Republican anointed by the GOP establishment for the special congressional election in Upstate New York will probably run third, behind the conservative Republican running on the Conservative Party line, who may in fact win.”

But if I were the non-comedian Bill, I think I’d be less comfortable with my own numbers and observations. “When asked how much confidence they had in congressional Republicans to make the right decisions for the country's future, only 19 percent of respondents expressed much confidence in the GOP -- well behind the confidence levels in congressional Democrats (34 percent) and Obama (49 percent).”

And I’d be downright worried about the cast of characters serious Bill points to as the leaders and worker bees of the New Republican Party: “The center of gravity, I suspect, will instead lie with individuals such as Palin and Huckabee and Gingrich, media personalities like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, and activists at town halls and tea parties. Some will lament this -- but over the past year, as those voices have dominated, conservatism has done pretty well in the body politic, and Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats in test ballots.”

Expect Republicans to pick up seats in the off-year congressional elections, as the minority party always does. How many they pick up will probably depend on how far they can reach beyond their base and draw in moderate voters.

If Kristol’s observations are correct, it might not be good news for the Grand Old Party and no laughing matter for moderate Republicans.

For a good laugh, I'd recommend Billy's When Harry Met Sally and especially City Slickers.